Hindsight

Saturday, October 17

Tonight at Hindsight

How last night's calls actually went.

NHL · 14 games

Tonight's slate · Previous day

The Bookie likes Washington Capitals at −118. Negative Nancy, naturally, is on New Jersey Devils.

On the record tonight

Leaderboard

Ranked by lifetime record, adjusted for sample size. Min. 8 decided picks, user algorithms ahead of the house, running within a week of that date. Algorithms with public rules show what they like tonight.

Standings + Shot Volume (NHL)
@The_Chosen_One · NHL
62.9%
All picks
80.0%
Lock picks
±9.6 ·105 picks
Flat stake +7.7u+7.5% ROI
Last 30 days · 66–39 · +7.7u
LOCK80.0%16–4+6.0uHIGH61.9%26–16+3.0uMED56.8%21–16+0.3uLOW50.0%3–3−1.6u
Ran this slate
How it went
TBL−395VAN @ TBLLOCK✓ correct
OTT−155OTT @ PHILOCK✕ wrong
CAR−205CAR @ WPGHIGH✓ correct
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)
@The_Chosen_One · NHL
59.7%
All picks
70.4%
High picks
±9.0 ·119 picks
Flat stake +3.2u+2.7% ROI
Last 30 days · 71–48 · +3.2u
LOCK75.0%12–4+1.7uHIGH70.4%19–8+1.8uMED60.5%23–15+4.7uLOW44.7%17–21−5.0u
Ran this slate
How it went
TBL−395VAN @ TBLLOCK✓ correct
CAR−205CAR @ WPGHIGH✓ correct
FLA−185SEA @ FLAHIGH✓ correct
Quinn Hughes to NJ
@TopShelfPicks · NHL
59.6%
All picks
68.4%
High picks
±9.4 ·109 picks
Flat stake +4.1u+3.8% ROI
Last 30 days · 65–44 · +4.1u
LOCK50.0%3–3−1.8uHIGH68.4%26–12+5.6uMED54.9%28–23−3.1uLOW57.1%8–6+3.4u
Last ran Oct 15

Sat this slate out.

My algorithm
@Bobbycool · NFL
69.2%
All picks
69.2%
Last 30 days
±19.2 ·26 picks
Flat stake +3.5u+13.4% ROI
LOCK85.7%12–2+5.6uHIGH100.0%2–0+1.5uMED33.3%2–4−2.6uLOW50.0%2–2−1.0u
Last ran Oct 11

Sat this slate out.

Goaltending & special teams
@The_Creator · NHL
57.9%
All picks
56.1%
Med picks
±9.2 ·114 picks
Flat stake +7.5u+6.7% ROI
Last 30 days · 66–48 · +7.5u
LOCK—0–0—HIGH50.0%1–1−0.5uMED56.1%46–36+0.5uLOW63.3%19–11+7.5u
Last ran Oct 15

Sat this slate out.

61.9%
All picks
61.9%
Last 30 days
±15.1 ·42 picks
Flat stake +3.2u+7.9% ROI
LOCK50.0%1–1−0.8uHIGH72.2%13–5+4.5uMED56.3%9–7+0.0uLOW50.0%3–3−0.6u
Ran this slate
How it went
TBL−395VAN @ TBLLOCK✓ correct
OTT−155OTT @ PHILOCK✕ wrong
CAR−205CAR @ WPGHIGH✓ correct

The house cast

The house cast enters every contest, runs the same rules every night, and gets graded like everyone else. They are the field you have to beat.

Home Cooking

Always picks the home team. No stats, no exceptions.

NHL73–5756% · last 30

The Professor

Backs whoever scores more and allows less per game.

NHL53–3064% · last 30

Coin Flip

Picks a side at random, the same way every time.

NHL63–6748% · last 30

Bandwagon

Backs the better record, head to head.

NHL75–4761% · last 30

Negative Nancy

Counts only flaws, and picks whoever disappoints her less.

NHL57–4655% · last 30

The Bookie

Backs the betting-line favorite. Sits out pick'ems.

NHL78–4961% · last 30

NHL

Final standings
NJD@WSH
WSH −118 · NJD −102
Final
NJD 2–4 WSH
The house
Home Cookinghome teamWSHLOW✓ correct
The Professorbetter goal differentialWSHHIGH✓ correct
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreWSHLOW✓ correct
Bandwagonbetter recordWSHMED✓ correct
Negative Nancyfewer flawsNJDMED✕ wrong
The Bookiemarket favorite −118WSHLOW✓ correct
Algorithms with a record
Standings + Shot Volume (NHL)@The_Chosen_OneWSHMED✓ correct
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundNJDMED✕ wrong
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonWSHMED✓ correct
8 of 9 on WSHgraded
CAR@WPG
CAR −205 · WPG +170
Final
CAR 3–2 WPG
The house
Home Cookinghome teamWPGLOW✕ wrong
The Professorbetter goal differentialCARHIGH✓ correct
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreWPGLOW✕ wrong
Bandwagonbetter recordCARMED✓ correct
Negative Nancyno pick
The Bookiemarket favorite −205CARHIGH✓ correct
Algorithms with a record
Standings + Shot Volume (NHL)@The_Chosen_OneCARHIGH✓ correct
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundCARHIGH✓ correct
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonCARHIGH✓ correct
6 of 8 on CARgraded
VAN@TBL
TBL −395 · VAN +310
Final
VAN 2–4 TBL
The house
Home Cookinghome teamTBLLOW✓ correct
The Professorno pick
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreTBLLOW✓ correct
Bandwagonbetter recordTBLHIGH✓ correct
Negative Nancyfewer flawsTBLMED✓ correct
The Bookiemarket favorite −395TBLHIGH✓ correct
Algorithms with a record
Standings + Shot Volume (NHL)@The_Chosen_OneTBLLOCK✓ correct
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundTBLLOCK✓ correct
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonTBLLOCK✓ correct
8 of 8 on TBLgraded
SEA@FLA
FLA −185 · SEA +154
Final
SEA 3–8 FLA
The house
Home Cookinghome teamFLALOW✓ correct
The Professorno pick
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreFLALOW✓ correct
Bandwagonbetter recordSEAMED✕ wrong
Negative Nancyfewer flawsSEALOW✕ wrong
The Bookiemarket favorite −185FLAHIGH✓ correct
Algorithms with a record
Standings + Shot Volume (NHL)@The_Chosen_OneSEAHIGH✕ wrong
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundFLAHIGH✓ correct
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonFLAMED✓ correct
5 of 8 on FLAgraded
NYI@TOR
TOR −130 · NYI +110
Final
NYI 4–1 TOR
The house
Home Cookinghome teamTORLOW✕ wrong
The Professorno pick
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreTORLOW✕ wrong
Bandwagonbetter recordTORHIGH✕ wrong
Negative Nancyfewer flawsNYILOW✓ correct
The Bookiemarket favorite −130TORMED✕ wrong
Algorithms with a record
Standings + Shot Volume (NHL)@The_Chosen_OneTORMED✕ wrong
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundTORMED✕ wrong
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonTORLOW✕ wrong
7 of 8 on TORgraded
BUF@MTL
MTL −142 · BUF +120
Final
BUF 3–4 MTL
The house
Home Cookinghome teamMTLLOW✓ correct
The Professorbetter goal differentialMTLMED✓ correct
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreBUFLOW✕ wrong
Bandwagonbetter recordMTLMED✓ correct
Negative Nancyfewer flawsBUFHIGH✕ wrong
The Bookiemarket favorite −142MTLMED✓ correct
Algorithms with a record
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundMTLLOW✓ correct
4 of 7 on MTLgraded
SJS@DET
DET −148 · SJS +124
Final
SJS 3–4 DET
The house
Home Cookinghome teamDETLOW✓ correct
The Professorno pick
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreSJSLOW✕ wrong
Bandwagonbetter recordSJSHIGH✕ wrong
Negative Nancyfewer flawsSJSLOW✕ wrong
The Bookiemarket favorite −148DETMED✓ correct
Algorithms with a record
Standings + Shot Volume (NHL)@The_Chosen_OneDETHIGH✓ correct
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundDETMED✓ correct
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonDETLOW✓ correct
4 of 8 on DETgraded
OTT@PHI
OTT −155 · PHI +130
Final
OTT 1–3 PHI
The house
Home Cookinghome teamPHILOW✓ correct
The Professorbetter goal differentialOTTHIGH✕ wrong
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreOTTLOW✕ wrong
Bandwagonbetter recordOTTHIGH✕ wrong
Negative Nancyfewer flawsOTTLOW✕ wrong
The Bookiemarket favorite −155OTTMED✕ wrong
Algorithms with a record
Standings + Shot Volume (NHL)@The_Chosen_OneOTTLOCK✕ wrong
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundPHILOW✓ correct
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonOTTLOCK✕ wrong
8 of 9 on OTTgraded
NYR@CBJ
CBJ −135 · NYR +114
Final
NYR 0–1 CBJ
The house
Home Cookinghome teamCBJLOW✓ correct
The Professorbetter goal differentialNYRHIGH✕ wrong
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreNYRLOW✕ wrong
Bandwagonbetter recordNYRHIGH✕ wrong
Negative Nancyno pick
The Bookiemarket favorite −135CBJMED✓ correct
Algorithms with a record
Standings + Shot Volume (NHL)@The_Chosen_OneNYRHIGH✕ wrong
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonNYRMED✕ wrong
6 of 8 on NYRgraded
DAL@CHI
DAL −218 · CHI +180
Final
DAL 4–0 CHI
The house
Home Cookinghome teamCHILOW✕ wrong
The Professorbetter goal differentialDALHIGH✓ correct
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreDALLOW✓ correct
Bandwagonbetter recordDALHIGH✓ correct
Negative Nancyfewer flawsDALLOW✓ correct
The Bookiemarket favorite −218DALHIGH✓ correct
Algorithms with a record
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundCHILOW✕ wrong
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonDALHIGH✓ correct
7 of 8 on DALgraded
STL@NSH
STL −115 · NSH −105
Final
STL 2–5 NSH
The house
Home Cookinghome teamNSHLOW✓ correct
The Professorbetter goal differentialNSHMED✓ correct
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreNSHLOW✓ correct
Bandwagonbetter recordNSHMED✓ correct
Negative Nancyfewer flawsSTLLOW✕ wrong
The Bookiemarket favorite −115STLLOW✕ wrong
Algorithms with a record
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundNSHLOW✓ correct
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonSTLMED✕ wrong
4 of 8 on NSHgraded
BOS@LAK
LAK −135 · BOS +114
Final
BOS 4–1 LAK
UPSET · +114 HIT
The house
Home Cookinghome teamLAKLOW✕ wrong
The Professorbetter goal differentialBOSHIGH✓ correct
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreBOSLOW✓ correct
Bandwagonbetter recordBOSHIGH✓ correct
Negative Nancyfewer flawsBOSLOW✓ correct
The Bookiemarket favorite −135LAKMED✕ wrong
Algorithms with a record
Standings + Shot Volume (NHL)@The_Chosen_OneBOSHIGH✓ correct
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundLAKLOW✕ wrong
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonBOSHIGH✓ correct
7 of 9 on BOSgraded
EDM@UTA
UTA −148 · EDM +124
Final
EDM 6–2 UTA
The house
Home Cookinghome teamUTALOW✕ wrong
The Professorno pick
Coin Flipa coin, nothing moreEDMLOW✓ correct
Bandwagonbetter recordEDMHIGH✓ correct
Negative Nancyfewer flawsUTALOW✕ wrong
The Bookiemarket favorite −148UTAMED✕ wrong
Algorithms with a record
Standings + Shot Volume (NHL)@The_Chosen_OneUTAMED✕ wrong
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundUTALOW✕ wrong
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonUTAMED✕ wrong
5 of 8 on UTAgraded
PIT@VEG
VEG −218 · PIT +180
Final
PIT 2–6 VEG
The house
Home Cookinghome teamVEGLOW✓ correct
The Professorbetter goal differentialVEGMED✓ correct
Coin Flipa coin, nothing morePITLOW✕ wrong
Bandwagonbetter recordVEGHIGH✓ correct
Negative Nancyfewer flawsVEGLOW✓ correct
The Bookiemarket favorite −218VEGHIGH✓ correct
Algorithms with a record
Standings + Shot Volume (NHL)@The_Chosen_OneVEGHIGH✓ correct
The Curve Fit (NHL 2025-26)@The_Chosen_One · proving groundVEGHIGH✓ correct
Goaltending + Special Teams@ppetersonVEGHIGH✓ correct
8 of 9 on VEGgraded

Consensus went 8–4 tonight

Last night

Full recap

The house won the night

The Bookie: “The book swept the room — 8/11, 29 pts. The house doesn't get lucky. The house gets paid.”

Hindsight: “Split decision: 2 co-winners, @The_Chosen_One up there at 7/11.”

7–4
Consensus
Standings + Shot Volume (NHL), Goaltending + Special Teams
Shared the win
NHL
Sport

Humans 0/11 · Machines 67/121 — machines took the night

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